Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Push Mortgage Rates Higher

Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Push Mortgage Rates Higher

This week, surging oil prices driven by the conflict with Iran have increased inflation expectations, leading to higher mortgage rates despite mixed economic data. Employment weakened with job losses and a rising unemployment rate, while manufacturing and services sectors showed expansion. Retail sales declined slightly, signaling cautious consumer spending.

Last Update: March 12, 2026

Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Push Mortgage Rates Higher

A quick note from us This week’s mortgage market was shaped predominantly by geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil prices. The conflict with Iran caused a sharp increase in oil prices, which in turn raised inflation expectations and pushed mortgage rates higher. While the labor market showed unexpected weakness with a loss of 92,000 jobs and a rise in unemployment, the manufacturing and services sectors expanded more than anticipated. Consumer spending, as measured by retail sales, declined slightly, reflecting some caution. These mixed signals create a complex environment for buyers and sellers navigating the current market. What this means for buyers: Buyers should anticipate higher mortgage rates in the near term due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. It is important to act decisively and consider locking in rates if you find a property that meets your needs, as rates may continue to rise. What this means for sellers: Sellers may face a market with slightly reduced buyer activity as borrowing costs increase. Pricing your home competitively and highlighting value will be essential to attract motivated buyers in this environment. Economic Data Highlights The February employment report revealed a loss of 92,000 jobs, a significant miss compared to expectations of a 50,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, whi

Jack Misraje

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Karen Misraje

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