Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Push Mortgage Rates Higher

Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Push Mortgage Rates Higher

This week, surging oil prices driven by the conflict with Iran have increased inflation expectations, leading to higher mortgage rates. Despite weaker-than-expected job growth and a rise in unemployment, strong manufacturing and services sector data suggest economic expansion. Retail sales dipped slightly, reflecting cautious consumer spending amid uncertainty.

Last Update: March 12, 2026

Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Push Mortgage Rates Higher

A quick note from us This week’s mortgage market was heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict with Iran, which caused oil prices to surge. This spike in oil prices has raised concerns about future inflation, contributing to an increase in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the labor market showed unexpected weakness with a loss of 92,000 jobs in February and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.4%. However, the manufacturing and services sectors demonstrated strength with ISM indexes well above expectations, indicating ongoing economic expansion. Retail sales declined modestly in January, reflecting some consumer caution. Overall, these mixed signals create a complex environment for buyers and sellers navigating the current market. What this means for buyers: Buyers should anticipate higher mortgage rates due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices and geopolitical risks. It is important to act decisively and consider locking in rates to avoid further increases as uncertainty persists. What this means for sellers: Sellers may face a market with more cautious buyers due to rising borrowing costs. Pricing homes competitively and highlighting value will be key to attracting motivated buyers in this environment. Geopolitical Impact on Mortgage Rates The conflict with Iran has led to a sharp increase in oil prices, which in turn has heightened inflation

Jack Misraje

323-209-5225

Karen Misraje

310-488-1030